Pennzoil 400 preview: Predictions and forecast for Las Vegas

A handful of fast cars and drivers with confidence should make for an interesting afternoon in Sin City.

If the adage about whoever reigns on the intermediate tracks on the NASCAR schedule is king, then we should see the first signs of someone stepping forward to make a run for the crown at Las Vegas in the Pennzoil 400.

It’s way too early in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series for any kind of coronation, but the first two races of 2018 had enough different going for them that they don’t usually serve as much of a bellwether. Daytona is a restrictor plate tossup, while Atlanta’s worn out surface means that only Kevin Harvick has it figured out — and we’re only partially joking about that.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway offers its own challenges, as any driver discussing its bumps will verify. But it’s similar enough to what lies ahead on a big chunk of the schedule that it should prove a little more predictive as far as who has things figured out with their cars and teams.

So far, it’s mostly Ford drivers who appear to be in that category. Harvick starts the race on the outside pole, his No. 4 Ford one of eight in the first six rows. Team Penske is well represented as well, with Ryan Blaney and both of his teammates in the top 10.

Add Kyle Larson to the list as well. as long as his Cup Series Chevrolet is as much to his liking as his XFINITY Series Camaro was on Saturday. Drivers who dominate the lower series race don’t always win on Sunday, but as we saw in Atlanta, sometimes they definitely do.

And while we’re waiting for 2017 Cup Series champion Martin Truex Jr. to start making some noise, this is your reminder that he was all kinds of trouble for the field last season on intermediate tracks, and he began his dominance with a win in this very race. If he figures in the outcome this afternoon, and he very well could, we’ll know he and the 78 team are ready to mount their title defense with a vengeance.

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Forecast

Wind and changing track conditions came into play during Pennzoil 400 qualifying, but neither should be quite as bad on race day. Weather Channel expects sunny conditions throughout the race, though not on the really warm side with air temps in the high 50s. Winds will be in the 10 mph range but shouldn’t be gusty and variable like they were on Friday.

Three things to watch

• Can Hendrick Motorsports find some mojo? The lineup of three young drivers and “Grandpa” Jimmie Johnson armed with the new Camaro held tons of promise for this season, and in the long term, it still does. It just hasn’t shown much so far. Chase Elliott has had his moments, but both Johnson and William Byron have struggled, and Alex Bowman has just been okay. Vegas could be the start of a turnaround, or it could signal that more times is needed to get the Hendrick group up to speed.
• Fuel mileage could come into play. Fans don’t tend to like when someone wins a race by taking a chance on the leaders needing to pit late or run out of gas, but it does happen sometimes at Vegas and almost became a factor on Saturday. It also gives Mike Joy and the Fox Sports announcers a chance to use more of those well-worn Vegas gambling analogies and puns they love so much.
• Is Kyle Busch due for a meltdown? Maybe it’s because Vegas is his home track, but something about this place brings out the Rowdy side of Busch. Last year, he tried to duke it out with Joey Logano and his whole team. Earlier this weekend, he gave his own XFINITY Series the middle finger. If things aren’t going right for the 18, Busch is basically must-see TV this afternoon, not to mention must-listen in-car audio.

Predictions

It’s silly to say the Pennzoil 400 will be has hard to call as the Daytona 500, but there’s a certain level of difficulty because while the fastest car is more likely to win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, there are indicators pointing up for a number of teams. It could be Blaney, Harvick, Truex or Brad Keselowski who looks like the class of the field, and if that’s the case, only mistakes or trouble not of their making are going to stop them. That said, we took the driver who looked fast on Saturday last week and it worked out okay, so we’re backing Kyle Larson to grab his first checkered flag at Las Vegas and punch an early ticket to the playoffs.

On the dark horse side, we’re throwing some love in the direction of Paul Menard. His early Wood Brothers Racing returns have been quite positive, and he was really fast in the first round of Pennzoil 400 qualifying. He earned his lone Cup Series victory six years ago (and it wasn’t at Las Vegas), but if calamity should strike the leaders, he definitely feels like he’ll be lurking in position to take advantage.