Why are Japanese trains overcrowded?

Japanese trains.

Rush hour.

People-pushers.

Do the above words conjure up this infamous, almost meme-like and comical image of white-collar workers being pushed like elephants getting stuffed into a claustrophobically tiny freight wagon?

And then one may notice the absence of this phenomenon outside Japan (save pre-2010s China), and ask: Why are Japanese trains, so overcrowded?

Before I answer the question proper, let me try shooting down some of the non-answers readers probably already have in mind.

Poor provision of train services? Oh hell naw, this is such a big misconception of the Japanese rail system both on a national and urban level! Call it anything and everything you want, but not a “poorly-done train system” unlike say some cities in the US with only 1 commuter rail line and still call it a “comprehensive network”!

Falling reliability? Partly, but it should be noted that this phenomena of people having to be shoved into train cars has existed much, much, longer before the spotless Japanese railway reliability reputation got marred by a whole bunch of incidents.

Track-sharing? While this is indeed true in Japan for suburban and commuter rail systems where multiple lines share the same tracks, which constrains the minimum headway (MH) a decent lot due to the principle of branching (heck even the cover photo for that Basics post was the track diagram for the Tohoku Shinkansen running all sorts of different services on the same tracks!), the problem with this argument is that if this is indeed the main factor behind infamous Japanese railway overcrowding, then we should, by logic, expect overcrowding on pretty much every Asian railway system, because track-sharing is literally the most cost-cutting railway practice, which cash-tight Asian powerhouses embrace and apply most of the time. Except, it doesn’t. (Indian railways are an exception, but that’s really just because they don’t run enough trains and the trains don’t have enough capacity)

Urban density? While indeed upon searching up images of Tokyo you get this:

and think to yourself, “Hey, Tokyo is one crowded and dense as hell city!”, and being fed images of the Shibuya junction further reinforces that impression of Tokyo being an insanely dense city, the catch is that… while Tokyo is dense, its density is nowhere near the top 30. I’ve cross-checked multiple lists (since the calculation varies by index), and in none of them has Japanese or Chinese cities made it into the top 30, save Harbin at #29 in just one index. (Seoul and Busan did make it, but I don’t recall anything infamous about the crowding on the railway systems in South Korea) As a side note, Singapore was #16 in one of those rankings.

Train capacity? Nope, Japanese trains are the literal opposite of railway midgets that Singapore currently has. In terms of capacity and train length, trains in Japan are real monsters, with configurations literally out-of-this-world, rivalled only by Hong Kong’s East Rail Line at 12 cars! (which still wimps out in comparison to longer trains in Japan!) For instance, my favourite E235 series (quite like the unusual fiberglass front, but the sides are bleeuuugghh like other Japanese rolling stock) is available in 11-car formations, the main configuration available.

Network density? This definitely isn’t one of the factors behind the infamously overcrowded trains in Japan! *face slap slap slap* Here’s the thing about Japanese urban rail networks: save the insanely dense grids formed through building massive amounts of subway system in Chinese cities, Japanese cities probably have the densest rail systems in the urban cores! Below are two screengrabs from Google Maps Tokyo and Singapore at roughly the same magnification:

Population? Another no.

Run some basic numbers, and you will realise Japanese urban populations cannot match up to that of cities in China or South Korea, both with crowded trains, but not that crowded to the extent of requiring specialised train-packers… Tokyo 14.0 million, Osaka 2.7 million, Yokohama 3.7 million, Seoul 9.8 million, Beijing 21.5 million, Shanghai 26.3 million, Guangzhou 15.3 million.

Overcrowded Japanese trains: The real reason

Then if Japan runs the biggest trains, has the densest rail networks, and Japanese cities aren’t anywhere near the densest in the world, why do Japanese rail passengers still need to be pushed in by specialised train-packers? Where did so many passengers come from in the first place?

In the analysis I provided above, have you noticed something… missing? Like, I’ve focused a little too much on trains alone? Where are… the… buses?

In the field of buses, namely city buses, or in Singapore the SG-, SMB- and SBS-plated buses, Japan performs… quite horribly. In fact it would be pathetic if not comical!

South Korea has the well-known well-organised Seoul Buses (known for the red, yellow, green and blue colour-coding system). Its route classification and numbering system was something I took a leaf out of in my bus replan.

While China has dozens of bus rapid transit systems in their bigger cities, and some pretty comprehensive conventional bus networks covering the entire city in a massive blanket, acting as excellent and viable alternative travel options to rapid transit.

Then there’s the Indian subcontinent nations… well at least there’s buses to complement the metro, however crap they are. They’re good at one thing though: numbers. Still, they’re not enough in number to meet demands, and this is also true for some railway systems too, so that’s really a case of insufficient service causing overcrowding, in India.

And Japan? Their city buses have no good achievements or recognitions to speak of. Sure, Tokyo got itself a “BRT” hyper recently but unlike powerhouse BRT systems e.g. Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, Beijing, it isn’t even talked about very much!

The one thing about Japanese cities and city buses is that… there’s simply too little buses, for too big a city! Like… when one googles “Tokyo streets”, “Tokyo Road” (minus that song), I notice endless lines of cars stuck in congestion, a massive ton of people spilling over the sidewalks, charter buses and airport coaches all abound, but public buses, are surprisingly rare, if not absent altogether from images of Japanese streets.

Add this, to the fact that Japanese buses themselves suck at pretty much every measure that public transport passengers would value: capacity, frequency. Plus the fact that public buses in Japan cannot even compare to trains in one critical aspect: that of travel times (and while Singapore has problems in the non-IVTT part, Japanese buses encounter all sorts of issues even in the IVTT part i.e. time spent in the buses is way too long), because for some reason Japanese buses don’t take the high road (i.e. expressway buses do not exist). There’s also the fact that there is simply insufficient service on Japanese bus routes, with 15 minute intervals being the most frequent for trunk routes that could be viable corridors connecting cities, a level that even European cities frown upon, and when the bus comes, 95% of the time it’s one of these outdated Isuzu, Hino or Nissan Diesel rigid 12m buses that SMRT had at some point but eventually did away with. With mostly front-facing seats, they probably don’t have good capacities. And Japanese bus operators aren’t even shy to bring out (!!!) minibuses onto the streets to do rounds, something we only do on the abysmally-unpopular Service 825 here.

So the Japanese bus-rail problem really boils down to the fact that buses in Japanese cities simply are not a viable alternative (a key word I’ve been using ever since Oct 14) to the train system. You want a fast ride? Choose between sitting in Tokyo traffic or riding in a packed express train. Don’t want to wait for a seeming eternity? Choose between an infrequent bus or any of Tokyo’s dozens of commuter, suburban, and rapid transit rail lines operating at intervals not more than 10 minutes. Want to get across the city? Choose between a bunch of almost unheard-of bus routes and conduct extensive mental gymnastics to figure out when to depart, when to get off, where to change, what buses to take (in most cases the bus network coverage is pretty… patchy, so good luck!), and squinting at a confusing but at least legible mess of lines known as the Tokyo + Toei Subway, complete with in-train announcements to help guide you on your way.

For most Japanese urban residents, the difference between bus and rail service in the cities is so stark, and so heavily tilted, that the illusion of alternative travel options to the rail system is non-existent! If you want to make a trip on public transport in Japan, unless you are willing to fork out a few extra thousand yen (a few dozen more SGD) for one of those elite-class luxury limo buses, there is usually just one option: to travel by train, be it intracity or intercity! This is the sad reality for the millions travelling at rush hour in Japanese cities, that like it or not, your only option is the trains (and hell, this is even true in the countryside: often times the only options available are single-track railway lines that operate only once an hour!)

Without credible travel alternatives, Japanese trains not only have to carry their rightful share of passengers, but also have to contend with the crowds that would have, say, travelled by bus, BRT, ARRT, basically anything other than the trains, which is a considerable bit. (Case in point: Notice how bus mode share in Guangzhou as seen in my earlier post hovers around and above 30% even with a comparatively mature rapid transit system?)

The dabao for Singapore

Should we engage in acts of bus irrationalisation, slashing at the logical bus grid we established for decades since the 1960s?

Should we give the finger to public buses on expressways?

Should we fragment the bus system by dividing it up into 14 segments, and giving them to different, but all profit-first operators, who know nothing better than to make quick bucks (or try to) off something that is supposed to be public and people-first?

And should we kick out and nullify suggestions on introducing alternative modes of transport to complement the trains, which are clearly struggling with issues of overcrowding?

If you answered yes, welcome to Japan!

Do you really want this to happen on our shores? As if our trains aren’t crowded enough already?

The uniquely Japanese phenomena of overcrowding and people-pushers has been twisted the wrong way in every single way by almost everyone trying to find an explanation for why this is largely confined to the not-as-populous-as-China-or-India Japan! There really isn’t rocket science mumbo-jumbo behind it, it is as simple an affair of not having an alternative travel option, thereby forcing the 30 million residents in metro Tokyo to all stuff together on overcrowded trains! Of course, the fact that the railway operator and transport bureaus only defining overcrowding at 250% rated capacity (how on earth does one even do that??) isn’t helping, since one cannot expect them to roll out any measures to ease the situation anytime soon!

A valuable planning lesson from the counter-example of Japanese cities, is the importance of having ALTERNATIVES to just the trains! Because as Japan has shown us, no matter how dense you build your rail networks, how big you build your trains, even if your population density or even just the population isn’t that high, if you force everyone to take the trains and only the trains, then you’ll run into a severe supply-side deficit, no matter what, and this translates into — you guessed it — having to hire dedicated staff just for the purpose of shoving people into trains!

That’s before you take into account – Singapore’s rail network isn’t anywhere as dense as that of any Japanese city of the same size or larger, and our trains are midgets! (6 cars? That’s nothing!) So expect.. greater pandemonium, that’s all I can say.

What I really want to say, is that we should take a good, hard look, at the kind of alternatives we can, and we should be providing, and provide them. Starting from (shock shock surprise surprise!) the humble, b u s.

And then, from there, let’s work onto other alternatives that can take even greater loads off the train system. Because remember, our population, and therefore public transport demand is still growing, and we will have to find a lot of extra transit capacity from, somewhere. And where better can we do that than to look at road-based rapid transit alternatives that are cheap and effective at reducing train loadings?

For those who scrolled all the way down to read the TLDR: It’s a very simple, but often-overlooked reason why Japanese trains are so overcrowded. When trains become the only viable option due to years of neglect overall for buses and other potential alternatives, people voluntarily give up on buses, and while they don’t like getting squished into train cars with tons of other strangers (chikan culture is widespread for a reason and the culprits often get away with it for a reason), they really have no choice. Something I don’t want, and I don’t think you would also want, here in Singapore, right? The Japanese case study thus further reinforces the need for alternative modes of transportation complementing each other and giving passengers different choices when travelling to their destinations. It isn’t just about reliability and backing up each other: now it is also a case of rail lines alone being (!!) insufficient in capacity as well!

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