The Russian-Georgian armed Conflict. Background information Population 4,4 mil. Population.

Presentation on theme: "The Russian-Georgian armed Conflict. Background information Population 4,4 mil. Population."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Russian-Georgian armed Conflict

2 Background information http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/cis_europe_pol_2003.jpg Population 4,4 mil. Population 142 mil.

3 Background information: breakaway regions http://media.economist.com/images/20080816/CFB977.gif South Ossetia 70,000 Abkhazia 216,000 Ajaria 376,000

4 Background information: history of conflict Late 18 th century – Ossetia was incorporated into the Russian Empire and divided into northern and southern regions 1918-1921 – Georgian independence from Russian Empire 1921 - Georgia was annexed by the Soviet Union 1922 - South Ossetia was established as an autonomous region of the Soviet Republic of Georgia

5 Background information: history of conflict 1989-1990 - South Ossetia tried to gain independence from Georgia April 1991 - Georgia received independence 1991-1992 - brutal clashes between South Ossetians and Georgians, 1,000 dead* 1992 – Ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia *http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5623&l=1

6 Background information: history of conflict 2003 – “Rose Revolution” in Georgia 2004 – fighting broke out in South Ossetia 2007 – Georgia calls for internationalization of peacekeeping force in the region August 2008 – Georgia attacks Tskhinvali followed by a Russian counter-offensive

7 South Ossetia In July 2005, President Saakashvili announced a new peace plan for South Ossetia that offered substantial autonomy and a three-stage settlement, consisting of demilitarization, economic rehabilitation, and a political settlement. South Ossetian “president” Eduard Kokoiti rejected the plan.

8 South Ossetia In March 2007, President Saakashvili proposed another peace plan for South Ossetia that involved creating “transitional” administrative districts throughout the region. In July 2007, President Saakashvili decreed the establishment of a commission to work out South Ossetia’s “status” as a part of Georgia. The JCC finally held a meeting in Tbilisi, Georgia, in October 2007, but the Russian Foreign Ministry claimed that the Georgian emissaries made unacceptable demands in order to deliberately sabotage the results of the meeting. No further meetings were held.

9 http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/09/16/world/16georgia_600.jpg Roki Tunnel – Only road passage from Russia to South Ossetia

10 Convoy of Russian soldiers by the Caucasus mountains http://cache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/georgia_08_11/georgia1.jpg

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12 Russian forces in Goergia

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14 Conflict Analysis: Interests StakeholderInterests Georgia Return breakaway regions Display that territorial integrity is under threat Promote NATO membership Demonstrate Russia’s aggressiveness South Ossetia Demonstrate violation of human rights Show that Georgia is aggressive state Get international recognition of their plight Desire for independence or incorporation into Russian Federation Russia Undermine Georgia’s territorial integrity Prevent Georgia from joining NATO Send strong message to Ukraine Protect its sphere of influence Control of the Caucasus and its energy resources Promote “regime change” in Georgia? West’s recognition of Kosovo? U.S. Missile Defense Shield?

15 Conflict Analysis: Interests EU Human rights protection Observance of international law Access to energy resources NATO/US Security and stability in the region Observance of international law Energy security Commitment to idea of democracy NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) StakeholderInterests

16 Oil and Gas pipeline that pass through Georgia http://www.bp.com/popupimage.do?img_path=liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/STAGING/global_assets/other_graphics/graphs/financial/IC_ump_azerb aijan_map_570xvar.gif &alt_tag=Diagram of Azeri project comprising four platforms in the Azeri field

17 Conflict Analysis: Actions StakeholderActions Georgia Accusing Russia of supporting separatist movements Military attack on Tskhinvali, capital of South Ossetia Accusation of violation of human rights and ethnic cleansing Attack South Ossetian-populated villages in S.O. South Ossetia Encouraged support from Russia Militias attack and loot Georgian-populated villages in S.O. Russia Disproportionate counter-offensive attack Invasion of Georgian cities and ports Accusation of violation of human rights and ethnic cleansing Recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states EU Shuttle diplomacy between Russia and Georgia Signing ceasefire agreement, ambiguity Accusing Russia of disproportionate response Appeal of use of diplomatic means to resolve conflict Suspension of EU-Russia Partnership talks NATO/US Accusing Russia of disproportionate response Suspension of NATO-Russia Council

18 Conflict Analysis: Stages 1992-2008 – Frozen Conflict (Summer 2004 – Active) 2008 – Re-activation of Conflict 2009 – Conflict Unresolved

19 Conflict Analysis: Consequences Deterioration of peace, stability and security in Europe and beyond Dramatic shift in Russian-Western relations Energy security Disregard for and enforcement of international law 158,000 displaced people (according to UNHCR) Reconstruction and Reconciliation

20 Georgian soldiers in Gori http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2008/08/09/gori10a.jpg

21 Conflict Analysis: Concerns How can EU security policy be improved in order to prevent, respond, and resolve regional ethnic conflicts? Can Russia be a partner in ensuring peace and security in Europe? What is the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia? How to ensure Georgia’s territorial integrity?

22 Tskhinvali: the Aftermath http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44920000/jpg/_44920204_01_ap.jpg&imgrefurl=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7559270.stm&usg=__ysJudalH L6N7Bj8K9Np- gwFy92E=&h=300&w=466&sz=40&hl=en&start=4&sig2=K1A5s04k5Jq31E9eG7G2PA&um=1&tbnid=uBm0Nj3JYMtQLM:&tbnh=82&tbnw=128&ei=vRmLSbKFD4naMLfQodoH&prev=/imag es%3Fq%3Dtskhinvali%2Bcivilian%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26sa%3DG

23 Six-Point Ceasefire Plan 1. Not to resort to force; 2. To end hostilities definitively; 3. To provide free access for humanitarian aid; 4. Georgian military forces will have to withdraw to their usual bases; 5. Russian military forces will have to withdraw to the lines held prior to the outbreak of hostilities. Pending an international mechanism, Russian peace-keeping forces will implement additional security measures; 6. Opening of international talks on the security and stability arrangements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

24 Geneva talks In the aftermath of the Georgian-Russian war in August 2008, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) called for the establishment of a mediation forum aimed at security and stability in the South Caucasus. The initiative goes back to the “Six-Point Ceasefire Plan” reached by French (and then EU) President Nikolas Sarkozy and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, which brought to an end themilitary confrontation between Moscow and Tbilisi.

25 Geneva talks

26 Initially Georgia urged the forum to include also the replacement of Russian military forces with international peacekeepers, EU monitoring within the separatist entities (i.e. an extension of EUMM); and the restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity. By contrast, Russia insisted on modifyingthe mandates of the OSCE and UN missions in the region. The parties failed to reach an agreement and the OSCE as well as the UN were forced to leave.

27 Establish an international peace mediation and monitoring process Encourage dialogue and reconciliation Aid the return of displaced persons Reconstruct areas damaged or destroyed by the conflict Recommendations

28 Challenge for the International Community How to establish a mechanism or process to hold Georgia, Russia and South Ossetia accountable for their actions, but without isolating them from the international community in order to prevent such aggressive actions from happening in the future?

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30 Consequences

31 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P4nePpB HKc

32 References Russia vs Georgia: The Fallout. International Crisis Group, Europe Report N°195, 22 August 2008 Sabine Freizer, Crisis group’s Europe Program Director discusses the implications of the Georgian-Russian conflict http://www.crisisgroup.be/tests/georgia_sep08/georgia_pres. html http://www.crisisgroup.be/tests/georgia_sep08/georgia_pres. html A Strategic Conflict Analysis of the South Caucasus With a Focus on Georgia, Svante E. Cornell et all, SIDA, 2005 Russia’s War in Georgia: Causes and Implications for Georgia and the World, Svante E. Cornell et all, Policy paper, August 2008, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program