Dylan Caporn: Nationals-proposed Coalition deal is more about pure political survival

The National Party has been called a lot of things over its 110 years of history — some unprintable. At the 2017 State Election, former Liberal MP Ian Blayney, who ultimately won the seat by just 500 votes over Labor’s Lara Dalton, lashed out in the days after the poll, calling the regional party “irrational misfits”. Despite the outburst, he used the close result to call for a coalition between the Nationals and Liberals, in a bid to work more closely and put an end to “distracting” three-cornered contests. “I worry if we don’t (form a coalition), it makes it even harder to get back into government,” he said. “Most of us would be happy to work in a coalition, but this next generation of Nationals want nothing to do with us. I call it rural chauvinism — they think they’re entitled to represent the regions.” Amusingly, less than two years after those comments, Blayney would leave the Liberals and join the Nationals because of the party’s “singular and dedicated focus on regional Western Australia”. If you can’t beat them, join them. For Blayney, the decision to join the regional party was more about the Nationals’ status as survivors of politics. In the face of changing demographic trends and the roll out of one vote, one value, the National Party’s shrinking base often places it under threat. And yet election after election, they still hold seats. In 2008, after Labor introduced one vote, one value in the lower house, it was an independent-focused bush campaign spearheaded by former leader Brendon Grylls which was credited with their survival. The current electoral environment — two National seats potentially merging into one in the lower house and the changed Upper House voting rules — poses a substantial threat to the party. Under the new upper house system, a high water result like 2013, where the party received 4.88 per cent of the Statewide vote, would see the party lucky to win two seats, rather than the five it won in 2013. Hence the proposed coalition with the Liberals. The Nationals-proposed coalition deal is less about making Libby Mettam opposition leader and charting a path back to government for the conservatives, than it is about pure political survival. Trading the title of alternative premier for at least three winnable spots in the upper house would give the party room to grow and survive. But Liberals aren’t convinced and pushed back. Some fear conceding ground in the bush would shut out local supporters and shrink their own chances of regrowth. Regional Upper House Liberal Steve Thomas decried the leaking of the talks as “terrible and disrespectful”. “Whoever leaked this story to The West Australian has done damage — not helpful,” Dr Thomas told reporters on Sunday. With friends like these, who needs enemies?