As Jonas Vingegaard powered away from a beaten Tadej Pogačar on the Hautacam, he was riding into an ever-more certain final finish atop the podium in Paris as the winner of the overall race.
The deficit for the two-time Tour de France winner to the leader of the race stands at three minutes and 26 seconds, far beyond what would normally be counternanced as a realistic margin to make up even between a time trial specialist and a rider unpractised in the discipline, let alone a pair that are pretty close in ability in the 'race of truth'.
The Course
It’s actually hillier than it looks on the profile, the elevation y-axis is reduced and some tricky climbs look like bumps and the general rolling nature of the course isn’t really highlighted. That said, it’s far from a hard route, but there’s a sting in the tail with two climbs, so it will be important to have a sound pacing strategy for the stage.
A 40-kilometre time trial is more reminiscent of a world championships time trial length course than a Grand Tour effort, and it will be a proper test of the top riders after nearly three weeks of battling over all types of terrain at the Tour de France.
Tour de France 2022, stage 20 profile
The Comparison
Pogačar’s pedigree in the race against the clock is well-known. His incredible comeback to win the 2020 Tour de France against one of the best time triallists in the world in Primož Roglič rightly stands as one of the best time trials in cycling history.
What is less well-known is that Vingegaard is also a very good time-triallist for a general classification rider and is consistently among the top ten riders on most races against the clock he contests.
The match-up between Pogačar and Vingegaard still generally favours the Slovenian two-time Tour de France winner, but it’s a fairly close battle between the pair even on flat courses.
The Head-to-Head
Stage 1- Tour de France 2022 – flat – 13.2km
Pogačar finishes ahead - 8 secs
Stage 1 – Tirreno Adriatico 2022 – flat – 13.9km
Pogacar finishes ahead - 35 secs.
Jonas Vingegaard said ‘I didn’t feel very good’ after that stage, Vingegaard ended up 2nd on overall GC 1’52 behind Pogačar over the course of the whole race, suggesting he was below the level of form he displayed at this Tour de France.
Stage 20 – Tour de France 2021 – flat – 30.8km
Vingegaard finishes ahead - 25 secs. Pogačar had the race wrapped up and was noticeably taking the corners conservatively during that race.
Stage 5- Tour de France 2021 – flat – 27.2km
Pogačar finishes ahead - 27 secs
Stage 1 - Tour of the Basque Country 2021 – hilly – 13.9km
Vingegaard finishes ahead - 10 secs
Stage 2 – UAE Tour 2021 – flat – 13km
Pogačar finishes ahead - 19 secs
Another notable recent performance
Jonas Vingegaard only – Stage 4 - Criterium du Dauphine – flat – 31.9km
Vingegaard finished 7th, 1’12 behind Ganna, the Dane conceded 29 seconds to his teammate Primož Roglič on that day, and it’s probably fair to say the gap would have been similar to Pogačar.
What can we expect
It’s hard to write off Pogačar, given his incredible performance to win the 2020 Tour, but it’s hard to see him taking more than a minute on his Danish rival given that the general difference in their times fluctuates between a second per kilometre in favour of either one. A longer time trial can accentuate those differences, but it’s going to be very tough for Pogačar to make up the time he needs.
Just for reference, a similar time trial over 42.5 kilometres in 2011 saw Australian Cadel Evans complete a turnaround against noted poor time trial triallist Andy Schleck, he took two minutes and 31 seconds on a much inferior exponent against the clock, and would still have been almost a minute short of the required Pogačar swing.
It would take some very bad luck for Vingegaard, I'm not sure anyone wants to see something like that decide the Tour de France.
