Steph Curry, measuring ‘clutchness,’ and the 15 points he was involved in to lead the Warriors past the Blazers

Clutch Player of the Year is a strange award for me because it can miss so much beyond the numbers.

To be entirely frank, either one of Steph Curry or DeMar DeRozan winning it this year would be fair. If it were to be Curry, it would be because he has been leading certain “clutch” metrics (with clutch period defined as the last five minutes of the fourth quarter with the score difference being five or fewer) this season.

Curry leads the league with 189 points in the clutch this season, 12 more than DeRozan. He’s shooting 50.4% in the clutch, including a 32-of-68 clip on threes (47.1%), which is the most threes attempted in the clutch, the most threes made in the clutch, and the best three-point percentage in the clutch this season. He’s also 39-of-41 (95.1%) on clutch free throws, also a league high.

(It also helps that the Golden State Warriors share the lead with the Atlanta Hawks in terms of most clutch games in the league. In a sense, that isn’t a stat to be proud of, especially when you consider the context of their season.)

Very few advanced metrics can accurately capture the best clutch players in a given season. There happens to be one site (Inpredictable) that does give an all-in-one clutch ranking based on several factors (clutch field-goal shooting, drawn fouls, free-throw shooting, turnovers, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks).

Curry’s field-goal shooting and free-throw shooting are the obvious boosters, but he gets knocked for the lack of fouls drawn, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks — in addition to him being turnover prone. Even if some of the categories above are given less weight compared to the shooting categories, it still is quite significant enough for him to have a clutch win probability added of 4.88 — fifth in Inpredictable’s clutch rankings.

Of course, that’s just one part of the equation when it comes to analysis. If the eye test is of any indication, Curry has had much more positive moments in the clutch than negative ones — including the fourth quarter he had against the Portland Trail Blazers tonight, where he had a stretch of scoring or assisting on 15 points.

Curry’s final stat line isn’t indicative of his high standards: 22 points on 22 shots (3-of-6 on twos, 5-of-16 on threes), only one free throw, and 49.0% True Shooting. Along with limiting turnovers, the Warriors could’ve made it easier on themselves if Curry had a better shooting night, especially when it came to making the open looks he was given.

But when push came to shove, the subpar night Curry had was quickly forgotten. Some of the buckets Curry was involved in during the aforementioned 15-point stretch technically wasn’t part of clutch period — but they were huge, nonetheless.

Without Draymond Green, Curry was left without his preferred partner in ballscreen, handoff, and give-and-go actions. That left Kevon Looney as the only available big who could match Green’s experience when it comes to pristine execution of the two-man game:

As well as helping his fellow veteran get open shots, courtesy of rock-solid screening:

The first actual clutch-period score by Curry came on this possession, drawn during a timeout. The Warriors run one of their bread-and-butter half-court sets: “Gaggle” split action.

What differentiates this from a run-of-the-mill low-post split action is what Curry does before coming off the actual split cut:

Curry first sets the screen for Jonathan Kuminga, who curls and cuts toward the basket. Curry then runs and comes off the screen by Looney. The initial screen acts a decoy for Curry’s man to fall behind a tad, which forces him to compensate by trying to shoot the gap (going underneath the screen to intercept Curry on the other side). But Looney also anticiapates this and positions his screen to wipe out Curry’s defender in the process of shooting the gap. Aided by Deandre Ayton’s drop coverage, Curry gets the open look to fall in.

Another empty-side two-man game between Curry and Looney ensues — and like the one before it, the Blazers are caught with their pants down the moment two defenders go to Curry:

Looney deserves the lion’s share of the credit for the possession below after intercepting an inbound, but it was Curry who ran the break and made the decision to pass to Brandin Podziemski for the finish and the foul — the final three points of the 15-point stretch Curry was involved in:

I’m not here to wax poetic about Curry’s “clutchness” and why he should unquestionably be the recipient of this year’s accolade. But should he win it, it’s well deserved. It would be a huge pushback to the detractors and naysayers who have questioned his ability to come up big in moments where the Warriors needed him the most.

He came up huge against the Blazers tonight in a must-win contest. Fate plays a part in their prospects of moving up to the eighth seed and an opportunity to win only one game to clinch a playoff spot.

In order for them to move up a play-in bracket, the following has to happen:

• Go 2-0 in their last two games, AND
• The Sacramento Kings (up against Phoenix and Portland in their last two games) have to lose at least once.

To borrow something that he writes on his shoes and making slight tweaks: The Warriors can do all things through Curry who strengthens them.